UFC Vegas 122 Picks and Predictions: Three Bets for Allen vs. Duncan

One week after violence was brought to Utah, the UFC returns to its home base at the Meta Apex. UFC Vegas 122 takes place on October 10 with a high-stakes middleweight contender main event.

UFC Vegas 122 will be headlined by Brendan Allen taking on the rising Christian Leroy Duncan.

Allen enters this fight on a three-fight win streak, with two Fight of the Night bonuses in that span. He most recently fought at UFC Vegas 118 in June, taking a decision over Edmen Shahbazyan.

Leroy Duncan has won five straight and eight of his last nine. CLD, who is 8-2 in the UFC so far, last fought at UFC Oklahoma City in July, defeating former title challenger Jared Cannonier by decision.

The co-main event will be a lightweight bout between Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert.

Camilo is 2-1 in the UFC since making his promotional debut in May 2025. He enters this fight off a first-round finish of Nazim Sadykhov at UFC Baku in June. Herbert, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, entering with a 4-5-1 UFC record. The former Cage Warriors champion last fought in April, scoring a first-round knockout of Mandel Nallo at UFC Winnipeg.

The rest of the main card will also feature Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza, Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III, and Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi.

ANDRE FILI VS KAI KAMAKA III

This should be a fun battle between two tested veterans who love to put on a show. Fili enters this fight needing a win, having lost five of his last eight despite two Fight of the Night bonuses in that span. This year has seen Fili lose to both Jose Delgado and Vinicius Oliveira. Kamaka earned a split decision win over Dakota Hope in his UFC return earlier this year, but he enters off a loss to Luke Riley.

Fili is going to have the size advantage here, and he should be able to use that to land from range and work combinations while making Kamaka chase – and potentially pay for it. Kamaka, however, will need to find a way inside to find success, doing so by bringing the striking pressure and flurries that he’s known for. If Kamaka can make the fight at a pace that the older Fili is uncomfortable with, this can be a show for him.

BET: Fight to go the distance (Caesars: -140)

MALCOLM WELLMAKER VS OTARI TANZILOVI

Wellmaker is an example of how the ups and downs in this sport can swing quickly. His first year after winning a UFC contract saw him score highlight first-round finishes. Now, he comes into this bout off a loss to Ethyn Ewing and a submission loss to Juan Diaz. Tanzilovi, meanwhile, is still hunting for his first UFC win after a loss on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024 and a loss to Shane Collins in his UFC debut.

Wellmaker needs to get his striking confidence back, and Tanzilovi seems like the perfect kind of opponent where he’ll be able to do just that. Tanzilovi, however, is a strong wrestling and grappling expert, so Wellmaker can’t rest on his laurels and allow himself to get into a grappling battle. This is ultimately a striker vs. grappler matchup that comes down to control and pace.

BET: Wellmaker via KO/TKO (FanDuel: +130)

JULIUS WALKER VS GERALD MEERSCHAERT

These two are both desperate for a win. Walker has not looked great to start his UFC run, and he enters off getting stopped by Dustin Jacoby and getting finished in eight seconds by Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev. Meerschaert, however, has lost five in a row and is competing at light heavyweight after missing the middleweight limit last time out against Jacob Malkoun.

Walker has athleticism, power, and reach that give him a clear physical advantage over Meerschaert. His power has been demonstrated while on the regional circuit – he needs to find a way to make it translate over into competition at the UFC level. Meerschaert needs to make use of his exert grappling, but that’s a lot easier said than done going up against a fighter Walker’s size (and 10 years Meerschaert’s junior) – and that’s without the losing streak the 38-year-old has been on. And there’s the matter that he’s now competing up 20 pounds.

This might be a rough one for Meerschaert, and potentially a UFC swan song.

BET: Walker via KO/TKO (DraftKings: -115)